Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,132.7 +.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 38,670.5 +1.2%

• NASDAQ 16,159.4 +1.6%

• Russell 2000 2,034.0 +1.8%

• NYSE FANG+ 10,046.0 +1.8%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 165.4 +7.9%

• Wilshire 5000 51,036.4 +.73%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,339.5 +1.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,703.1 +.02%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 810.3 +.4%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.5 -1.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,682.2 +1.3%

• Transports 15,364.5 +1.3%

• Utilities 911.6 +3.1%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 103.89 -.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.3 +2.8%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 209.4 +.62%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.2 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 493,953 +.8%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 -11.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 114 +344
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.0 +6.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,836 -8.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,765,266 -1.9%

• Total Put/Call .93 -6.0%

• OEX Put/Call .68 -14.4%

• ISE Sentiment 110.0 -10.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.80 +36.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.8 +.3%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .83 +3.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -8.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75 +11.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 18.0 +.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.45 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.05 +.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,417.6 -.09%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  62.0 +2.5
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.001 Trillion +.4%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.299 Million

• AAII % Bulls 38.5 +19.9%

• AAII % Bears 32.5 -4.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 284.75 -4.3%

• Crude Oil 78.10/bbl. -6.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 255.1 -6.7%

• Natural Gas 2.16 +32.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.5 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%
  

• Heating Oil 244.0 -4.0% 
• Newcastle Coal 145.5 (1,000/metric ton) +7.1%
  

• Gold 2,299.7 -1.6%
• Silver 26.43 -2.8%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 464.8 -1.9%

• Copper 455.5 -.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 382.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

• CME Lumber  538.0 +5.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,505.3 -.37%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 302.5 USD/Short Ton +.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +3.3% -60.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.8% +1.2 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.99 +27.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 85.0 +56.5%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +4.3% +.9 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.88 +2.21:  Growth Rate +14.4% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 20.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% +8.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% -5.2 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +9.22: Growth Rate +35.1% +3.8 percentage points, P/E 30.9 +.3
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -22.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.2 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.0 -6.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 8.4%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 91.6%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 6/12
  

• US Dollar Index 105.04 -.09%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,719.11 +.19%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 61,834.8 -2.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.50 -2.6%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -31.0 -2.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.50% -17.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.326 Trillion -.55%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $7.013 Billion +2.5%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $124.117 Billion -1.1%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.3 +2.4%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.6 +1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.5 +1.0%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.2 -8.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 139.0 -8.6%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.9 -2.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.6 -9.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 +.9%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 96.13 +5.4%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.0% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% +1.0 basis point
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% -18.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.25 basis points
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.4 -3.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 124.0 +.4% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 289.0 +3.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.8 -3.6%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.4 -1.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 165.1 -6.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 761.0 -9.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -.3% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,320.6B +.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 210,000 -1.6%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.9 -1.7%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.44% -12.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 192,100 -2.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.20% +10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY n/a
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $112.9M n/a
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.67/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,774.4 +3.1%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,725.5/40 ft Box +.74%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,193.6 +.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 48.9 -6.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,888 +1.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,642,085 +23.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth -.2%

Leading Sectors

• Education +7.0%

• Alt Energy +6.5%
• Social Media +6.1%
  

• Biotech +6.0%
  

• Digital Health +5.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -1.8%
  

• Gold & Silver -3.0%
  

• Oil Service -3.9%

• Restaurants -4.1%
  

• Energy -4.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (78)

• TWST, TNDM, MODV, OSPN, VIR, ATGE, MTZ, AMGN, TDW, GME, PCTY, TILE, CSTL, ACA, OLED, FOXF, XHR, MELI, LYV, ALCC, FYBR, SPXC, ELVN, SEM, ELVN, AAPL, GTLS, BFAM, GMAB, SIGA, CIVI, ITRI, BJRI, BBAR, W, ANET, NVT, LLYVK, DLR, RH, PAM, YPF, FLNC, MSI, KROS, RGA, FTAI, CVNA, BLDR, EDU, ACEL, SLN, ASPN, KBH, BEP, FSLR, CPT, TCOM, NTES, CRS, GGAL, BMA, TXRH, APTV, BOWL, XPO, CNXC, GVA, CNXC, CVLT, ASAI, BKNG, WK, AGRO and TTMI
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)

• MGA, DKNG, ILMN, PWP, VREX, TWI, FRSH, FLR, USM, TRMB, TD, IR, CGON, HIMS, AAON, BILL, FTNT, TDS, PTVE, TRUP, EXPE, XPOF, OTEX, NET, OMI and SPT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +4.3% -.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.09 +.51:  Growth Rate +14.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% -20.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +2.7: Growth Rate +35.1% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 30.9 +.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 -29.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.1% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 63.4%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.0%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +143 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +260 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +184 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/5.23
• (AMR)/10.82
• (BNTX)/-1.02
• (JLL)/.86
• (SAVE)/-1.45
• (THS)/-.01
• (TSN)/.39
  

After the Close: 

• (AXON)/.95
• (FN)/2.11
• (GT)/-.01
• (MCHP)/.57
• (PLYA)/.33
• (SPG)/2.81
• (SYM)/.02
• (VNO)/.58
• (WMB)/.49
• (DDD)/-.08
• (EVBG)/.39
  

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Canaccord Metals/Mining Conference, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, (DHR) annual meeting, (CYH) annual meeting, (VMI) annual meeting, (UBER) annual meeting, (AXP) annual meeting, (LLY) annual meeting, (MRNA) annual meeting, (ALB) annual meeting, (CVNA) annual meeting, (HSY) annual meeting (IDXX) annual meeting, (PHM) annual meeting and the BNP Paribas Electric Vehicle/Mobility Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 -1.0
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 68.5% of Issues Advancing, 29.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.86 +66.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$121.9M
  
• 100 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 58.6% (+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.0 +.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.7 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,130.2 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Fear) +3
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.5 -37.2%
  
• Vix 13.9 -5.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -10.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.75 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.25 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.5 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 -.03%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.54%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less China Economic Pessimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.8 -3.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .67 +38.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.4 -.95%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.9 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.07 +.43%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +17.0
  

• Total Put/Call .98 -7.6%

• NYSE Arms .98 -15.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$284.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 262.3 -.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 283 -8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.1 -2.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.4 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.8 -5.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.1 -2.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 131.7 -.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -6.25 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 769.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.5 +.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.11%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.9 euros/megawatt-hour +7.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.6 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.3 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.0 +1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(373 of 500 reporting) +4.7% -.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.58 +.38:  Growth Rate +14.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +57.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 321.85 +1.96: Growth Rate +34.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 30.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 +16.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% -60.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.1% +4.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 64.5%(-7.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 45.0%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -331 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +275 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +215 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long